Moderna and Merck's mRNA Melanoma Vaccine Soars After Phase 3 Breakthrough

Moderna and MSD's mRNA melanoma vaccine has made significant gains in market capitalization following its Phase 3 success. The companies added tens of billions of dollars to their values within hours of announcing the results, without a peer-reviewed scientific publication or complete breakdown of efficacy and safety available yet.

Sara Torrecilla, Senior Biotech Analyst at Candriam, notes that investors are assigning value to the possibility of this approach working across multiple tumor types and treatment settings. The peak sales estimates already circulating in the market, in the tens of billions of dollars, 'should be viewed as market assumptions, not clinical evidence.'

Groupama AM's Julia Kung sees the surge in stock prices for Moderna and Merck as a de-risking re-rating of both companies thanks to the historic validation of the mRNA platform. The market is also betting that this could be expanded beyond melanoma to other tumors.