Moderna's Intismeran Soars as Analyst Predicts Billions in Oncology Sales
Moderna's Intismeran has made significant progress in oncology research, according to an analyst at William Blair. The combination of Intismeran and Keytruda has shown 'statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements' in recurrence-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival compared to standard Keytruda alone. This has led the analyst to upgrade Moderna's stock from Market Perform to Outperform.
The analyst, Myles Minter, adjusted his financial model for Moderna to reflect an increased probability of success for Intismeran's approval in adjuvant melanoma, raising it from 65% to 90%. He also extended the sales model for Intismeran in melanoma to 2040, with expected sales exceeding $5.4 billion to Moderna based on a 50%/50% profit share with Merck.
The WAC price of $475,000 reflects pricing estimates that are comparable to currently approved cell therapy treatments in oncology. The analyst notes that the data has largely de-risked Intismeran's utility in combination with pembrolizumab, and its safety profile keeps the bar for clinical uptake low.
However, investor debate will now turn to how much the INTerpath-001 data have de-risked Intismeran in other cancer settings and if this product can be as broad as Keytruda. Moderna's shares were down 19.89% to $139.69 at the time of publication on Thursday.