Moderna's Stock Seesaws as Market Prices in Future Success
Moderna's stock has pulled back by 18% from its 52-week high of $176.66, currently trading at $144.83 as of September 3rd. The company's mRNA cancer vaccine breakthrough with Merck sent shares up 503% in the past year, but technicals and fundamentals are sending mixed signals.
The stock rallied after Moderna and Merck announced that their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine met its primary endpoint in a Phase 3 melanoma trial on August 19th. Analysts project sales exceeding $1 billion by 2030 and $3 billion by 2035, but the company's revenue has collapsed from $19.26 billion in FY2022 to $1.94 billion in FY2025.
The market is pricing in a future that hasn't arrived yet, with analysts projecting losses ahead for the company. The next make-or-break moment will be the ESMO 2026 Congress on October 26-27th, where full Phase 3 intismeran data will be presented.