NOAA Predicts Below-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season with 75% Chance

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated its forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a below-normal activity with a 75% chance. This revised outlook is more favorable than the original May forecast, which had a 55% chance of below-normal activity.

The updated numbers indicate that the full season (June 1 through November 30) will likely produce between 7 and 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes, and 0 to 2 major hurricanes. These ranges include the two named storms that have already formed this season, Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha.

The improved forecast is due in part to El Niño, which has strengthened in the equatorial Pacific and is driving wind shear conditions that disrupt tropical storm formation and intensification of existing storms. According to Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA's National Weather Service, 'When El Niño emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity.'

For Walt Disney World visitors planning fall trips, the updated forecast offers some reassurance, but the season's peak is still ahead. Central Florida can be affected by tropical storms and hurricanes tracking through the Gulf or up the Atlantic coast.