Novartis Pelacarsen Failure Leaves Eli Lilly Unscathed
Novartis (NVS) reported its third clinical failure in just seven days. The company's late-stage study evaluating pelacarsen failed to meet the primary endpoint of reducing cardiovascular events compared with a placebo.
Pelacarsen, an antisense oligonucleotide drug developed by Ionis Pharmaceuticals and licensed to Novartis in 2019, was designed to inhibit the production of lipoprotein(a), or Lp(a). Elevated Lp(a) levels affect around 20% of people worldwide, and typically don't respond well to diet or lifestyle changes.
Although pelacarsen did lower Lp(a) levels, it didn't achieve a statistically significant reduction in cardiovascular events. Analysts had estimated that if the drug succeeded, peak annual sales could reach $4 billion to $5 billion.
Eli Lilly's (LLY) stock fell only 3% after the news emerged, whereas Amgen's (AMGN) stock plummeted 10%. This is partly because Eli Lilly's lepodisiran adopts a different approach from both Novartis and Amgen, achieving a greater reduction in Lp(a) than pelacarsen in a phase 2 trial.
Additionally, Eli Lilly's dominant position in the diabetes and obesity market may have helped shield its stock. In the second quarter of 2026 alone, the company generated $23 billion in revenue, with about $14.9 billion coming from Mounjaro and Zepbound.