Nvidia Earnings and PCE Data Collide Ahead of Fed Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve's decision on raising interest rates is set to be influenced by two key events happening on August 26. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release July's Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which will provide the last major economic reading before the September rate decision. Additionally, Nvidia will report its fiscal second-quarter 2027 results, which may impact the market's sensitivity to interest rates.
For those holding variable-rate debt, such as credit card balances or adjustable-rate mortgages, Wednesday's data releases are crucial. The PCE reading is expected to show a modest step down in inflation from June's 3.7% year-over-year to around 3.6%, according to Oxford Economics.
The month-over-month core reading is the single number that will define the September decision. Anything above 0.3% would push September hike odds meaningfully higher, while anything below 0.1% would remove the September meeting from the active debate. The mechanism is specific and calculable, with two components of core PCE constructed directly from PPI data.
Nvidia's earnings report may also inject a second orthogonal signal into an already sensitive market. The company is expected to report revenue of approximately $92 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of around $2.09.