Nvidia on Track to Hit $1 Trillion Sales Target Despite Supply Constraints

Nvidia's data center revenue has been driving growth for the company, making up roughly 90% of its total revenue over the past year. In the fiscal first quarter of 2027, data center revenue grew 92% year over year to $75 billion.

CEO Jensen Huang predicted that Nvidia would collect at least $1 trillion in cumulative Blackwell and Rubin chip sales from 2025 through 2027. Recent results indicate that Nvidia is very much on pace to hit this target, with Wall Street's consensus estimate forecasting total revenue of $394 billion this year and $561 billion next year.

However, there are risks that could derail Nvidia's momentum, including supply constraints and rising in-house chip production from big cloud customers like Amazon and Alphabet's Google. These companies have previously made up about half of Nvidia's data center revenue, and if they shift more workloads to custom AI chips, Nvidia's growth could slow.

Nvidia needs to reduce its dependence on sales to big tech companies that are increasingly focusing on their own chips. The company has been striking partnerships with neocloud and sovereign customers, including IREN and leading Japanese manufacturers, in an effort to mitigate this risk.