Nvidia's Hidden Problems Exposed: Culper Research Calls Top with Stunning Accuracy

Nvidia's troubles began in November 2025 when CEO Jensen Huang declared that China's sales would be zero for the next quarter and beyond, due to US export controls. However, Culper Research predicted otherwise, shorting Nvidia shares on May 13, citing a 'significant China problem'. The research firm believed that Nvidia was secretly re-routing Chinese demand through neighboring countries like Taiwan and Southeast Asia.

It turned out that Nvidia did indeed have massive, unpublished problems in China and Taiwan. In July, Taiwanese prosecutors searched the home and workplace of an Nvidia employee suspected of smuggling prohibited chips to China. This came just a week after Jensen Huang met with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in Washington, DC.

Culper Research had estimated that over 20% of Nvidia's fiscal 2026 compute revenue would still run on Chinese demand, even through intermediaries and Taiwanese diversions. The report named several companies involved in this operation, including Megaspeed, Speedmatrix, and Giga Computing. A former high-level Nvidia employee told Culper Research that 'Megaspeed is just the tip of the iceberg', suggesting a larger problem.