NVIDIA's Multiple: A Two-Year Shipping Forecast Is All That Matters
NVIDIA (NVDA) is currently trading at $217.56, which translates to a multiple of about 32.1 times its last twelve months of adjusted earnings.
This high multiple is what's keeping some buyers away, but the case for paying it up turns on whether the company can build and ship AI data-center systems close to schedule.
The consensus forecast suggests that NVIDIA's multiple will decrease significantly within two years, with estimates suggesting a 47% lower multiple by 2028 compared to today.
This would require revenue growth of about 49.1% per year across the next two years, which is not an unrealistic expectation given the company's past performance.
NVIDIA has already raised its total supply, including inventory purchase commitments and prepayments, to $145 billion, and management expects to be supply-constrained throughout the life of Vera Rubin, whose production shipments start in fiscal Q3 2027.