Nvidia's Q3 Revenue Guidance May Be Too Low

Nvidia's third-quarter revenue guidance is expected to be conservative by December, according to a prediction made by an analyst. The company has issued a revenue guide of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, which translates to a range of $105.8 billion to $110.2 billion.

The analyst believes that Nvidia's actual revenue will exceed this guidance, reaching around $113 billion to $114 billion in the third quarter. This prediction is based on Nvidia's historical performance, with the company exceeding its high-end revenue guidance for 12 consecutive quarters.

In fact, over the past four quarters, Nvidia's actual revenue has averaged 3.1% above the high end of its guidance. If this trend continues, the analyst estimates that revenue could reach roughly $113.6 billion in the third quarter.

The analyst also points out that Nvidia's operating numbers support similar revenue numbers. In the second quarter of fiscal 2027, Nvidia's hyperscaler revenue increased 13% sequentially to nearly $49 billion, while AI Clouds, Industrial, and Enterprise (ACIE) revenue jumped 25% sequentially to $40 billion.

The analyst notes that supply remains a key constraint for Nvidia, particularly in the Data Center segment. However, management expects ACIE to drive most of the sequential revenue growth in the third quarter, while hyperscaler demand is expected to pick up more strongly in the fourth quarter and fiscal 2028.