Nvidia's Winning Streak May Be Fading

Nvidia's recent performance has been impressive, but history suggests its winning streak may be coming to an end. Despite being up just 20% this year, Nvidia's stock price is still a significant gain over the S&P 500's 14%. However, it's worth noting that the company's most thrilling gains are often behind it by the time it gets widespread market attention.

Nvidia became a household name after the AI megatrend took off, but its success predates this trend. In 2021, when AI was still a futuristic concept to many non-techies, Nvidia was already a leader in video game hardware and saw its stock more than double. The release of ChatGPT at the end of 2022 further propelled Nvidia's GPUs into the spotlight as the gold standard for generative AI.

A look back at Nvidia's past performance reveals a pattern: most of the company's price action occurs in the first seven months of the year, with the remainder of the year seeing relatively modest gains. If history repeats itself, 2026 may end higher than it currently is, but not by much.