P&G Stock Stagnant for a Year, But Market Share Recovery Holds Promise

Procter & Gamble (PG) stock has been stagnant for a year, but beneath the surface, there's evidence of recovery. The company's largest U.S. customers have seen their market share climb from under 10% in the first half to around 50% in the second. This is a crucial metric for management and one that could change investors' perception of P&G.

CFO Andre Schulten highlighted this trend at the Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference on September 10. If the share recovery continues, it would indicate that the business is quietly re-accelerating, and today's price becomes an attractive entry point.

The TIKR model suggests a roughly 39% total return to mid-2031, based on modest assumptions. This forecast relies on the assumption that the U.S. share recovery will continue and that operating margin will expand. The primary risk is the potential for oil prices to remain elevated, which could delay the re-acceleration.