Salesforce Sees 31% Upside, But One Analyst Sees 100%+ Return
Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) has been punished in the market despite consistently beating earnings estimates, leading to a significant gap between its current price and Wall Street's consensus target. The company currently trades at $184.02, while analysts expect it to reach $241.72, implying a 31% upside from current levels.
The stock has fallen by 30.17% year-to-date and 28.15% over the last year, with two main catalysts driving the decline: Morgan Stanley's downgrade due to slower-than-expected organic revenue growth, and Salesforce's $25 billion accelerated share repurchase program, which increased noncurrent debt from $10.4B to $39.3B.
However, analysts are not blinking, and one analyst, Scott Berg at Needham & Co., sees 100%+ upside for the stock. He bases his prediction on Salesforce's Agentforce platform monetizing faster than expected, as well as the company's consumption monetization via Flex Credits and Slack evolving into the primary agentic layer for enterprise workflows.
The bull case holds if Agentforce is real and drives multi-year reacceleration of revenue growth. In that scenario, cRPO of $33.6 billion (up 14%) is a floor, and Berg's $400 target becomes defensible. However, the bear case dominates if Agentforce at 2.6% of revenue is too small to move the needle before organic growth decelerates.