Salesforce's AI Rally Faces Reality Check at Dreamforce
Salesforce's stock has seen significant gains in recent months, but its current valuation may be at odds with its operational performance. The company's shares are trading roughly 4% below their 52-week high of EUR 229.90, despite a 71% increase from its yearly low.
However, the year-to-date performance remains marginally negative at minus 2.5%. This discrepancy highlights the gap between investors' expectations and the company's actual operations.
The recent surge in stock price is attributed to the company's second-quarter results for fiscal year 2027, released on August 27. Revenue advanced 11% to $11.35 billion, while reported earnings per share of $5.90 exceeded the consensus estimate of $3.27.
However, a significant portion of this earnings growth comes from a one-time paper gain on the company's stake in Anthropic, which Morgan Stanley analysts have highlighted as a key distinction. They argue that the more meaningful metric is the 14% growth in short-term backlog (cRPO), indicating genuine demand recovery.
The operational story beneath the earnings noise is where the bulls find their footing. Agentforce, the company's AI-agent platform, reached an annualized recurring revenue of $1.5 billion - a 240% jump year over year. Data 360 posted ARR of $2.4 billion, and during the quarter, 3.2 billion agentic tasks were processed, up 97% from the prior quarter.
The analyst community has responded with a flurry of target revisions, with TD Cowen raising its target to $280 on Thursday, maintaining a Buy rating. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan followed with targets of $271 and $265 respectively, while Wolfe Research upgraded the stock to Strong Buy on Saturday, citing the successful pivot toward agentic AI.
However, the technical picture gives even sympathetic observers pause. The relative strength index sits at 80.5, firmly in overbought territory. The stock trades roughly 40% above its 50-day moving average and 29% above the 200-day line, with a 30-day gain of approximately 34%.
Management is doing its part to buttress the operational case, with a $25 billion share buyback program remaining active, supported by free cash flow of $1.1 billion in the quarter, up 81% year over year. The newly unveiled Claudeforce - integrating Anthropic's Claude into Salesforce and Slack with 37 pre-built sales functions - extends the company's reach beyond its own AI infrastructure.
The proximate test arrives quickly, as Salesforce hosts its Dreamforce conference in San Francisco from September 15 to 17 under the banner 'Agentic Enterprise.' There, the company must demonstrate that the announcement wave around Claudeforce and planned acquisitions translates into a tangible product portfolio - or risk the market ratcheting expectations higher without operational support.