Samsung Electronics' Shareholder Return Plan Falls Short Amid Strong Profitability Outlook

Samsung Electronics' shareholder return plan fell short of market expectations this year. In its August 23 research report, Goldman Sachs explained that the company's 2026 shareholder return pool is expected to range between 90 trillion and 110 trillion KRW, which is lower than some analysts had anticipated.

According to Goldman Sachs, Samsung's continuous expansion of free cash flow (FCF) and stable distribution mechanism are key drivers of its valuation recovery. The firm expects the strong profitability driven by the memory business to continue, with significant progress in the HBM sector.

The company plans to distribute approximately 30 trillion KRW in Q3 2026, with the remaining portion executed through dividends and buybacks/cancellations after the confirmation of the January 2027 earnings report. Goldman Sachs projects that Samsung's cumulative FCF from 2024 to 2026 will be approximately 270 trillion KRW.

The research firm maintains a Buy rating on Samsung Electronics common stock with a target price of 490,000 KRW, implying 74% upside from the current share price. Goldman Sachs also raised its EPS forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 by 1%, 7%, and 11%, respectively.