Bitwise, a crypto asset manager, has significantly raised its long-term price target for bitcoin (BTC), now projecting the cryptocurrency could reach $1.6 million by 2036. This represents a substantial increase from its previous forecast of $1.3 million and assumes an annualized return of 34.3%. The revised outlook comes from Bitwise's 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, which analyzes potential returns, volatility, and corrections over the next decade.
The firm's updated forecast is based on an expanded estimate for the global store-of-value market, now projected at $110 trillion by 2036, up from $91 trillion. Similarly, the institutional investment market estimate has risen from $216 trillion to $303 trillion. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan noted that while market-share assumptions remained unchanged, the firm is more bullish on bitcoin due to recent developments, including regulatory progress and growing demand for hard assets like gold.
The report highlights bitcoin's maturing status, with 95.7% of its maximum supply of 21 million coins already in circulation. Bitwise expects institutional investors to allocate 1% to 5% of their assets to bitcoin, creating demand of $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion, far outstripping the annual new supply of $14 billion from mining. The base case scenario assumes bitcoin will capture 25% of the store-of-value market and 1% of institutional investment assets by 2036, while the bull case projects a price of $3.67 million with a 50% market share.
Bitwise also anticipates a decline in bitcoin's volatility to 27.8% over the next decade, down from the previous forecast of 32.9%. The firm's report comes as the market debates whether bitcoin's June lows of around $58,000 mark the end of the latest bear cycle, with its price recently rallying to above $80,000. Despite some demand shifting to gold, institutions continue to add bitcoin exposure, and its share of the store-of-value market has grown from less than 1% a decade ago to over 5% today.