$6 Corn Unlikely as Market Volatility Looms

A recent panel discussion at Farm Progress Show highlighted the importance of grain marketing for farmers. Ed Usset expressed his excitement for farmer 'Hank Holder' this year, noting that holding last year's old crop and moving it now could be a good strategy due to current market conditions.

Corn and soybean markets have been on a good run lately, but knowing when to sell grain is crucial. Jim McCormick, chief operating officer of AgMarket.net, emphasized the need for farmers to know their breakeven numbers and market for profit. He recommended re-running breakeven calculations as yields become clearer in the fall.

McCormick attributed the recent price surge to speculator money entering the commodities market due to fears of a 'Super' El Niño affecting South American crops and the potential for $6 or $7 corn. However, Bruce Blythe expressed skepticism about these high prices, citing large crop yields.

Farmers are advised to keep an eye on upcoming reports and events, including the USDA's Sept. 11 crop report, private crop estimates from firms like StoneX, and the meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. McCormick noted that with only 20% of the current crop having been marketed, there is room for a potential price correction.

McCormick encouraged farmers to take a long view on marketing, sharing a story about a farmer who successfully hedged off 400,000 bushels in one morning. Usset recommended marketing insured acres first if prices and breakevens are favorable, but cautioned against just targeting the highest highs.