Afghanistan's Winter Wheat Season at Risk Due to Soaring Fertilizer and Fuel Costs

Afghan farmers face significant challenges ahead of the critical winter wheat planting season, according to a new analysis by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. Rising fertilizer and fuel prices, along with higher transport costs and difficulties accessing agricultural inputs, are putting pressure on crop production. The FAO's latest survey found that access to fertilizer was the second most frequently reported constraint, leading many farmers to reduce planting areas, borrow money, and expect lower crop yields.

The October-December wheat planting period is a crucial time for intervention, as crop performance directly impacts food security. The FAO warns that the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has contributed to higher global fertilizer prices, with urea prices in Afghanistan 49% higher than last year and diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices up 17%. Fuel prices have also surged, with diesel costs 15% above last year's level and 18% above the three-year average.

Higher transport, import, and insurance costs have further strained farmers and consumers. Wheat grain prices are 12% higher than a year earlier, while flour prices have also increased. Rice prices remain elevated, with high-price rice up 26% and low-price rice up 33%. The FAO notes that food costs are more strongly linked to household food insecurity than natural hazards, with rural households reporting rising fuel and food costs as major shocks to their livelihoods.

The livestock and labor markets are also under pressure, with sheep prices down 6% and labor market conditions 15% below both last year's and the three-year average. While the expected arrival of El Niño in 2027 could benefit crops, the FAO cautions that high fertilizer prices and limited access to inputs could reduce these benefits.