African Economies Reel from US-Iran Conflict Impact on Energy and Fertilizer Supplies

A conflict between the US and Iran has had far-reaching consequences for African economies, causing a multidimensional shock across energy supply, food systems, export corridors, and financial conditions.

The conflict began on February 28, 2026, when US and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a significant increase in Brent crude oil prices from $71 per barrel to a high of $123 by early April 2026.

African economies have been affected through three major transmission channels: energy, fertilizer, and logistics. The energy channel has had the most visible impact, with pump prices rising 15-35% in countries such as Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, Ghana, and South Africa since late February 2026.

Oil-producing economies like Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Gabon, Congo, and Equatorial Guinea have gained revenue from crude prices hovering above $100, but most remain net importers of refined products, so domestic pump prices are still expected to rise. However, countries with downstream or liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity may benefit in the long term.

The fertilizer channel presents a significant risk, as Gulf countries supply approximately 35% of global urea, 47% of sulfur, and 24% of ammonia. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to an 83% collapse in dry bulk traffic between February and March, which is particularly concerning given that March to May is the primary planting season across East and Southern Africa.