The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) has released early balance sheets for the 2026/27 season, indicating a tighter supply and demand outlook for UK wheat and barley compared to the previous season. The analysis, published on October 22, 2026, highlights a significant drawdown in wheat stocks, with opening stocks estimated 24% below the 2025/26 level and 23% under the five-year average. Despite a modest 1% year-on-year rise in wheat output, the total UK wheat crop is projected at 12.07 million tonnes, which is still 9% below the five-year average.
Barley faces a different challenge, with production estimated at 5.50 million tonnes, down 14% year on year and 21% below the five-year average. This decline is attributed to reduced spring barley areas in England and Scotland, as well as drought effects on English yields. Demand for both crops is forecast to be 1% lower than last season, primarily due to declines in human and industrial uses, including wheat used for bioethanol until the end of October 2026.
Animal feed use of both grains is expected to remain high following this summer's drought, which could elevate imports of feed grains. The first forecast for UK wheat imports this season is 2.750 million tonnes, slightly above the 2.615 million tonnes of 2025/26 and 20% above the five-year average. Barley imports are projected to rise to 250 thousand tonnes from 213 thousand tonnes last season. AHDB notes that evolving price relationships will influence which grains are used for animal feed and the pace of imports, potentially shifting the supply and demand picture.
Uncertainty in the early forecasts is attributed to production and imports on the supply side, and animal feed on the demand side. The Scottish Government's inability to publish provisional crop estimates this year adds to the uncertainty, with Defra set to release final UK crop estimates on December 10. Trade flows are also influenced by regional dynamics and global price pressures, particularly for maize imports. AHDB is scheduled to release the first official estimates of supply and demand for all UK cereals on behalf of Defra on November 26.