Alberta Economy Poised for Strong Growth Despite Global Headwinds

Alberta's economy is expected to outpace the rest of Canada in 2026, according to ATB Financial's latest Quarterly Alberta Economic Outlook report. The province is faring well across various indicators, including employment, population growth, and retail sales.

The report projects that Alberta's real GDP will grow by 2.6% in 2026, surpassing the national average of 0.9%. ATB chief economist Mark Parsons attributes this growth to Alberta's ability to weather geopolitical issues such as the war in Iran and Trump tariffs.

However, Parsons cautions that there are risks to this trajectory, including inflation and potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada. He notes that a new wave of spending in oil and gas production could be a positive factor, but it's uncertain whether this will materialize.

Alberta is also experiencing high unemployment at 6.8%, mainly due to an influx of job seekers rather than a lack of job growth. Parsons expects the labor market to balance out as population growth slows down.