Alberta Separation Could Cost Up to $170B in First Five Years
A recent report commissioned by the Alberta government estimates that separation from Canada could cost between $50 billion and $170 billion in its first five years. The University of Calgary's School of Public Policy conducted the analysis, which models two scenarios: a 'smooth' separation and a 'difficult' one. In the smooth scenario, Alberta maintains access to major trade markets, expands resource development, and delivers some government services more efficiently. However, the report warns that any recovery could take years and depend on favourable conditions such as sustained high oil prices.
The difficult scenario assumes a more challenging separation process, with Alberta's economy potentially shrinking by 16% after 20 years, employment decreasing by nearly 5%, and annual deficits exceeding $30 billion. The report emphasizes that separation involves significant changes to public services, trade, taxes, and laws. Premier Danielle Smith has stated that the findings demonstrate why her government is urging Albertans to remain in Canada.
The Alberta Transition Council, which advocates for an independent Alberta, is expected to table a costed analysis of their own in the coming weeks. The report's conclusions are consistent with previous estimates from the Canada West Foundation and an expert panel chaired by economist Jack Mintz.