Alberta Separation Report Paints Bleak Short-Term Picture, Optimistic Long-Term Outlook

A University of Calgary School of Public Policy report commissioned by the Alberta government models two possible scenarios for Alberta's economy in the event of separation from Canada.

Under a 'smooth' scenario, real gross domestic product is estimated to be 2.2 per cent lower in the short term but 3.4 per cent higher over the long term compared to remaining in Canada.

The 'difficult' scenario assumes higher trade costs, persistently higher borrowing costs, and a larger discount on Alberta oil, resulting in an estimated 10.1 per cent lower GDP in the short term and 16.2 per cent lower over the long term.

The report also examines policy changes and potential savings that could follow separation, including the ability for Alberta to redesign taxes, regulations, and programs around its own priorities.