Alberta's Referendum Vote: A Two-Step Process with Uncertain Consequences

Alberta is at the center of Canadian politics once again, and this time it's not just about separation. In six weeks' time, Albertans will vote on whether to hold a referendum next year on leaving Canada. However, this vote is not just about independence; it's also about holding a future referendum at all.

The two-step process was required by a judge due to Indigenous consultation issues surrounding the original leave question. Those who vote yes can do so for various reasons: they may want out of Canada or simply want to have a real vote later on.

This has led to strange alliances in opposition, with Jason Kenney, a former conservative minister under Stephen Harper, teaming up with Rachel Notley against the referendum. Eastern politicians have spent months treating Alberta as a bargaining chip, floating ideas such as sacrificing jobs and energy to punish Donald Trump or cutting electricity.

Peter McCaffrey of the Alberta Institute argues that these plans are flawed, pointing out that Alberta oil does not go straight to Ontario and Quebec but through the United States first. Shutting off the Americans would also shut off Eastern Canada with them.