Aramco CEO Warns of Global Oil Supply Limits and Long Recovery

Aramco CEO Amin Nasser has warned that the global oil supply system is nearing its limits, with replenishing depleted inventories potentially taking up to two years. Speaking at an energy information forum in London, Nasser emphasized that the buffer capacity to absorb supply shocks has become dangerously thin, leaving few alternatives for additional supply.

Nasser noted that the loss of Middle Eastern oil supply since the war began has approached 3 billion barrels, roughly half the volume that would normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Emergency releases from strategic petroleum reserves have already exceeded 1 billion barrels, but restoring all inventories would require an additional demand of 2 million barrels per day over the next 18 months, given the current global demand of around 100 million barrels per day.

Other energy executives at the forum shared similar concerns. Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah of Kuwait Petroleum Corp. highlighted a shortfall of 6 million barrels per day in refined products, attributing it to the war. Ryan Lance of ConocoPhillips predicted that global oil demand may not fully recover until 2028 or 2029, while Petronas CEO Tengku Muhammad Taufik forecasted ongoing chaos through the end of the year and possibly into 2027.