Aramco CEO Warns of Prolonged Oil Market Pressure Until Hormuz Reopens

The CEO of Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer, has warned that pressure on global oil markets will intensify until the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The executive’s remarks carry significant weight, given Aramco’s central role in Gulf supply disruptions and its history as a key source during outages.

The CEO’s comments suggest the Strait of Hormuz is currently closed or severely restricted, emphasizing that global oil stockpiles could take up to two years to refill even after the strait reopens. This extended timeline contrasts with past disruptions, where front-month prices and freight costs spiked during closures but partially retreated upon reopening. The current situation implies a more persistent market imbalance due to depleted inventories, which could sustain physical demand even after the immediate disruption ends.

The CEO also noted that strategic oil releases from reserves provide only temporary relief. Historically, such releases have capped front-end prices briefly without addressing the underlying shortages, with prices often reasserting themselves once the released oil is absorbed. Key factors to monitor include tanker transits through the strait, war-risk insurance premiums, the pace of coordinated reserve releases, Saudi export routes, and official updates on reopening timelines.