Argentina has raised its production forecasts for wheat and corn in the 2026/27 marketing year, driven by favorable moisture conditions and strong export demand. Wheat production is now expected to reach 23 million metric tons (MMT), up from earlier estimates, while corn output is projected at 62 MMT. Wheat exports are forecast at 17 MMT, and corn shipments could hit 43 MMT, potentially the second-highest levels on record for both commodities.
Wheat farmgate prices for December 2026 delivery have surged to around $230 per ton, up from $185 a year earlier, reflecting robust international demand. Barley prices have also improved, with feed barley quoted at $210, $215 per ton and malting barley at $230, $240 per ton. Despite these gains, producers continue to face tight profit margins due to higher fertilizer costs and disease concerns.
However, the outlook is not without risks. Excessive rainfall linked to an unusually strong El Niño event could disrupt harvesting, reduce grain quality, and affect final output. Barley production has been revised down to 4.8 MMT, while sorghum output is forecast at 3 MMT. Rice production is expected to reach 1.19 MMT on a rough basis, with exports forecast at 330,000 tons.
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service highlights that strong export demand, particularly from Brazil and other international markets, is supporting Argentina’s favorable grain outlook. Despite these positive trends, excessive soil moisture and potential El Niño impacts remain significant risks to the country’s grain production and exports.