Asia’s coal imports are poised for a significant surge in the final quarter of 2026 as liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices remain high. The region is set to see a late-year resurgence in coal shipments, driven by a wide price discount of thermal coal compared to LNG, currently the most affordable power generation fuel in Asia. Benchmark Australian thermal coal export prices are around $143 per metric ton, or $5.40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), making it roughly $20 per MMBtu cheaper than LNG in key markets.
The fourth quarter traditionally marks the peak demand period for coal in Asia, as utilities replenish stocks ahead of winter heating. China, Japan, and South Korea, the major coal-consuming markets, imported around 122 million metric tons of coal in the July-to-September quarter. However, their imports averaged 143 million tons during the last quarter of 2024 and 2025, suggesting a potential jump of 20 million tons in the final quarter of 2026.
For major coal exporters like Indonesia and Australia, the final months of the year are typically the busiest. Indonesia’s average shipment volumes during the October-to-December quarter ranged from 137 million tons between 2023 and 2025, while Australia averaged 55 million tons. If the trend repeats, exports from these two countries could rise by nearly 30 million tons during the final quarter of 2026, marking a notable turnaround for a fuel widely seen as declining.
Despite the momentum behind the energy transition, cost remains a decisive factor in fuel choices. With elevated LNG prices and increasing power demand, utilities across Asia may opt for coal as the cheapest electricity source, highlighting that economic incentives can override climate concerns in the near term.