Asia Set to Absorb Majority of Canadian Oil Exports by 2028

Canada's crude oil exports to Asia are expected to increase significantly in the coming years. By the end of 2028, about 70% of Canadian oil exports could be heading to Asian markets, according to Trans Mountain CEO Mark Maki.

The expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline's capacity will give Canada room to increase oil shipments to Asia. Currently, two-thirds of vessels departing from the terminal carry oil to Asia, and as the pipeline expands, most of that growth is expected to be directed towards Asia.

Asia's rising demand for oil comes amid disruptions to Middle Eastern supplies due to the US-Israel war with Iran. The Trans Mountain pipeline has a capacity of 890,000 barrels per day (bpd) and reached full capacity in June 2026. Additional transport capacity will be added in the fourth quarter of 2026 and by the end of 2028.

China is expected to remain the main consumer of Canadian oil, with its characteristics making it suitable for use as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry. Beyond China, Canada has opportunities to expand into other Asian markets, including Thailand, India, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam.