Australian farmers are holding back wheat and barley sales as they grapple with deteriorating crop quality following prolonged rainfall. Harvesting is underway in New South Wales and Queensland, but growers are cautious due to variations in grain quality and high moisture levels. Some wheat parcels in northern New South Wales have protein levels of 13-16%, but screenings range from 12% to 20%. In central and southern parts of the state, screenings in certain wheat lots have reached as high as 70%, despite protein levels of 14-15%. Farmers are opting to store grain until harvesting is complete to allow for additional cleaning and better pricing.
The limited selling activity is already impacting prices, particularly in southern Australia. Over the past week, barley prices at some grain receival sites have increased by AUD 5-7 per ton. In Melbourne, indicative barley prices rose from AUD 295 to AUD 305 per ton, while ASW wheat increased from AUD 345 to AUD 350 per ton. January wheat offers also gained AUD 10 to reach AUD 360 per ton.
Despite limited new-crop grain availability, domestic consumers remain well supplied with old-crop stocks and deliveries secured before the rainfall. Livestock producers may increase their use of locally sourced lower-grade feed barley due to high transport costs from southern regions. For example, transporting grain from the Parkes area to southern Queensland costs approximately AUD 160 per ton, reducing the economic attractiveness of such shipments.
Harvesting operations continue to accelerate, with GrainCorp receiving 1.3 million tons of grain over the past week alone, including nearly 200,000 tons in a single day. In many parts of northern New South Wales, growers have completed approximately 75% of their harvest, while barley harvesting is largely nearing completion. However, forecast rainfall of 25-50 mm could cause further delays and aggravate grain quality issues, encouraging farmers to maintain a cautious approach to marketing their crops.