A new analysis by Climate Resource for WWF-Australia suggests that demand for Australia’s coal and LNG exports could disappear before 2040. The report examines the impact of global energy transition plans and Paris Agreement commitments on Australia’s fossil fuel industries, both for exports and domestic use. Under the most ambitious 1.5°C pathways, Australia’s fossil fuel sector could shrink to just 5% of its current size by 2050.
The study projects a steep decline in coal exports, from around 362 million tonnes in 2024 to about 100 million tonnes by 2035. Thermal coal is expected to phase out first, between 2034 and 2039, followed by metallurgical coal (2042-2050), gas (2037-2049), and oil (2050-2067). The report emphasizes a plausible future where Australia’s trading partners accelerate their shift to renewable energy, electrification, and lower-carbon industries.
Dr. Anita Talberg, lead author of the report, stressed the need for Australia to prepare for this transition. “Countries are starting to put dates on their transition away from fossil fuels,” she said. “Australia, as a major exporter and COP31 President, should begin planning its own roadmap now.” WWF-Australia is urging the Australian government to develop a national transition plan to manage the decline of fossil fuels and build new industries.
Rob Law of WWF-Australia highlighted the risks of delaying action. “Workers, families, and regional communities should not bear the cost of an unmanaged transition,” he said. “New industries and infrastructure take years to develop, so Australia must act now to secure future prosperity.” The analysis comes as global leaders gather for COP31 in Türkiye, where the urgency of transitioning away from fossil fuels is a key topic.