Australia’s Resources Earnings to Hit $422 Billion by 2026-27 Amid Global Demand

Australia’s resources and energy export earnings are projected to climb to $422 billion in 2026-27, driven by global demand for critical minerals and energy transition needs. This forecast, from the September 2026 Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ), marks a $19 billion increase from the previous year and a $6 billion rise from earlier predictions. The outlook is shaped by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have disrupted supply chains and raised energy prices.

While earnings are expected to peak in 2026-27, they will likely decline thereafter as commodity prices normalize and shipping disruptions ease. By 2027-28, earnings could drop to $391 billion, further decreasing to $379 billion by 2030-31. Federal resources minister Madeleine King highlighted the resilience of Australia’s diverse resource exports amid global trade uncertainties.

Iron ore remains Australia’s top export, though earnings are forecast to fall from $123 billion in 2025-26 to $107 billion in 2026-27, and $79 billion by 2030-31. Gold earnings are also expected to decline, while copper and critical minerals like lithium are poised for growth due to rising demand from electrification and artificial intelligence infrastructure. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) earnings are projected to increase to $70 billion in 2026-27, supported by higher prices.

The REQ cautioned that forecasts remain uncertain, particularly regarding the recovery of disrupted supply chains and the reopening of major shipping routes. Resources and energy exports account for two-thirds of Australia’s general merchandise exports, underscoring their critical role in the economy.