Australia's Resources Exports to Peak Before Long-Term Decline
Australia’s resources and energy export earnings are projected to peak at $422 billion in 2026-27, driven by geopolitical disruptions and rising demand for commodities linked to artificial intelligence and the energy transition. The Department of Industry and Resources’ September 2026 forecast indicates that earnings will climb from $403 billion in 2025-26 before declining to $391 billion in 2027-28. By 2030-31, export earnings are expected to fall further to $379 billion, or $343 billion in real terms, as commodity prices normalize.
The near-term increase is attributed to conflicts in the Middle East, which have disrupted production and global supply chains, boosting energy commodity prices and input costs. The forecast expects these prices to stabilize as supply and shipping disruptions ease. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is set to benefit significantly, with export earnings projected to rise from $57 billion in 2025-26 to $70 billion this financial year before dropping to $42 billion in real terms by 2030-31 as Middle East supply conditions normalize.
Iron ore will remain Australia’s largest resources export, accounting for more than 25% of resources and energy earnings throughout the outlook period. However, declining prices are expected to reduce iron ore earnings from $123 billion in 2025-26 to $107 billion in 2026-27 and $79 billion in real terms by 2030-31. In contrast, copper and critical minerals are forecast to see growth due to increasing demand from electrification, electricity-grid expansion, and AI-related data center development. Copper export earnings are projected to rise from $14 billion in 2025-26 to $19 billion in real terms by 2030-31, while critical minerals earnings are expected to surge from around $17 billion to $26 billion this financial year before stabilizing at $22 billion in real terms by 2030-31.
Gold earnings are estimated to decline by 6% from almost $72 billion in 2025-26 to $68 billion this financial year as prices ease and the Australian dollar appreciates modestly against the US dollar. Coal faces a softer long-term outlook, with thermal coal earnings forecast to fall from $31 billion in 2025-26 to $24 billion in real terms by 2030-31, and metallurgical coal declining from $39 billion to $36 billion. The forecasts highlight a shifting composition of Australian resources earnings, with traditional bulk and energy commodities facing price pressure while copper and critical minerals benefit from investment in electrification, AI infrastructure, and the energy transition.