Azerbaijan Food Prices May Be Buffered by Russia's Grain Surplus

Azerbaijan's food prices are rising due to global pressure, but the wheat market may develop differently for the country. According to data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global food price index increased by 1.9 percent in August 2026 compared with the previous month.

The global market is experiencing weather conditions, geopolitical tensions, and trade and logistics problems that are putting pressure on supply expectations. In Azerbaijan, food prices have also increased, rising by 6.9 percent in January-August 2026 compared to the same period last year.

However, Russia's grain surplus may create an opportunity for lower prices in the domestic market. The country is facing logistical problems related to its foreign trade and grain exports due to strikes on Russian ports on the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. This could lead to cheaper wheat in Russia, which might reduce pressure on flour and bread product prices in Azerbaijan.

Despite this potential opportunity, experts caution that cheaper wheat in Russia does not automatically mean lower import prices for Azerbaijan. The country's grain imports from Russia are carried out mainly by rail, limiting the direct impact of problems at Black Sea ports on supplies to Azerbaijan.