Bab El Mandab Blockade Exposes Saudi Arabia's Oil Export Vulnerability

Saudi Arabia's reliance on the East-West Pipeline has been seen as a secure solution to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. However, recent developments in the Red Sea have exposed a critical weakness in this assumption.

The Bab El Mandab is currently inaccessible due to a sustained Houthi blockade, which could disrupt global oil markets and shift strategic power balances. The Kingdom's East-West Pipeline has a nameplate capacity of around seven million barrels per day, but once crude reaches Yanbu on the Red Sea, it still needs to be exported.

Yanbu has evolved into Saudi Arabia's principal export outlet, allowing for flexibility in exports while reducing exposure to Iranian threats. However, the current vulnerabilities highlight the need for policymakers and strategic planners to reassess alternative routes and develop contingency plans to mitigate potential disruptions.

The Suez Canal is not a straightforward solution, as it was never designed to replace unrestricted access through Bab el-Mandab. While it can absorb additional traffic, it will create new bottlenecks, longer transit times, and higher costs for global energy markets.