Baer Forecasts $60 Oil, Sees Positive Impact for Asia

Julius Baer's Mark Matthews is predicting a decline in crude oil prices to $60 per barrel by August 2026, which would ease pressure on India's rupee and make Asian equity markets more attractive for global investors.

Matthews argues that the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in oil prices is overstated relative to actual supply disruption. He believes that the US-Iran conflict has not resulted in sustained production cuts or export blocks, which would justify higher crude prices.

A $60 per barrel price for Brent crude would represent a 33% decline from current levels and would significantly reduce India's annual oil import bill by approximately $24-27 billion. This would shrink the country's current account deficit, ease inflationary pressure on the broader economy, and strengthen the rupee.

Matthews also notes that Asian markets are drawing more global investor attention as a broader structural trend, independent of the crude oil price call. A lower crude oil price would make energy-importing economies like India and South Korea more attractive for international capital flows.