Barclays Keeps $100 Forecast Amid Growing Oil Supply Risks

Barclays has reaffirmed its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in 2026, sticking to $100 per barrel despite growing concerns. The bank cited risks skewing higher due to ongoing disruptions in global energy supplies.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route, remains closed, affecting about 20% of the world's energy supplies. This has led to an estimated 14 million barrels per day being removed from the market, accounting for nearly 14% of global supply.

Inventory trends indicate a deficit of 6-8 million barrels per day, with US inventories nearing historic lows since 2020. Even if the Strait were to reopen immediately, Barclays notes that the starting point for inventories would be roughly 20 million barrels below recent tight levels.