Beef Export Market Sees Softening Demand Amid Safeguard Quotas

Australia's beef market is experiencing a softening in export demand due to the impact of safeguard quotas in China and Korea. The trigger for these quotas was a surge in exports, particularly from Australia, which has led to a reduction in export orders.

Exporters are looking ahead to the possibility of recovering export markets, with some planning to freeze down product for China as early as November, aiming to send it to market early in 2027. However, the China quota is expected to expire by May next year, and the Korea quota will likely be filled shortly after.

This concentration of peak demand for HGP-free grain-fed Angus cattle between November and April may distort feeder markets, with a possible shortage of suitable feeders during this period. Feedlots may consider turning off their operations in November to April and then restarting for China in June-October, which could further disrupt the market.