Biofuel Output Set to Soar 70% Amid Energy Crisis

Global biofuel output is expected to surge nearly 70% by 2030 due to the ongoing energy crisis triggered by the Iran war. According to a study co-authored by Chatham House and the Forest Stewardship Council, major producing countries are pushing ahead with raising blending mandates in response to rising fossil fuel prices.

The study warns that this surge in demand may worsen food inflation and deforestation risks, particularly if policy responses prioritize energy security over environmental safeguards. The authors estimate that land needed for biofuel feedstocks could more than double by 2030, requiring an additional 36 million hectares of land - roughly the size of Germany.

The study highlights the need for sustainable production methods to mitigate these risks. First-generation biofuels, made from food and feed crops, tend to have negative consequences for land degradation, food security, and water use. In contrast, second-generation biofuels produced from organic residues and waste materials may offer a more environmentally friendly alternative.

Crude oil prices have risen nearly 40% since the Iran war began in late February, while sugar and corn prices have gained about 20%. The study's authors caution that policy responses should balance short-term energy security with long-term environmental sustainability.