Biofuels Production Surges Amid Energy Crisis, Raising Concerns Over Food Security
Global biofuels production is expected to surge by nearly 70% by 2030, driven by increased fuel-blending mandates in major producing countries. The energy crisis triggered by the Middle East conflict has made biofuels more cost-competitive as crude oil and gasoline prices spike.
The U.S., EU, Brazil, India, and Indonesia have adopted or proposed higher biofuel blending mandates since the outbreak of the conflict in late February. In the U.S., the EPA unveiled the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) 'Set 2' rule for 2026 and 2027, establishing the highest renewable fuel volume mandates in the program's 20-year history.
The mandate raises biomass-based diesel volume requirements to 5.4 billion gallons for 2026 and 5.7 billion gallons for 2027, up from 3.35 billion gallons in 2025. Brazil has also moved quickly, raising the mandatory ethanol content in gasoline to 32% after increasing the blend from 27% to 30% in June 2025.
The study warns that the expansion could double the land area required to grow biofuel feedstocks across the globe by 2030, claiming an additional 36 million hectares (85 million acres) of land. This is roughly the size of Germany and could undermine global efforts to enhance food security.