Bitcoin Price Unfazed by Oil Volatility: Study
A study of five years' worth of data on Bitcoin and oil prices has found little correlation between the two. The research used data from Coingecko, Coinmarketcap, and FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) to analyze daily, weekly, and monthly percentage changes in Brent and WTI crude oil prices and Bitcoin prices.
The study found that during periods of high oil price volatility, such as the 2026 Iran conflict, Bitcoin's price movements showed no measurable link to oil prices. For example, over the past 12 months, WTI crude oil prices jumped around 40%, while Bitcoin is down around 25%. However, most of Bitcoin's fall came before the war started in February.
The study also found that during the six biggest oil price jumps of the past five years, Bitcoin prices rose three times and fell three times. For instance, between Feb. 25 and March 18, 2026, Brent spot jumped 67% (WTI, 47%), but Bitcoin advanced 5%. Meanwhile, between Aug. 25 and Sept. 16, 2026, Brent moved up 45% (WTI, 24%), while Bitcoin dropped around 3%.
The study suggests that oil prices may serve as a bellwether for monetary policy at central banks, but this pressure has been too small and uneven to be seen in the data. The researchers found that during periods of high inflation expectations, such as 2020-2022, there was a significant positive correlation between oil and Bitcoin prices.
Binance Research published a similar finding in a paper earlier this year. They also concluded that oil price shocks increase $BTC's short-term volatility but do not set its price direction.