Attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea and Gulf regions have escalated, threatening global food security. In October, at least nine vessels were targeted off the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO members. Russia has repeatedly bombarded Ukrainian ports, forcing Kyiv to rely on alternative export routes, including the Danube corridor and overland corridors through the European Union. These routes have also faced Russian attacks, with the Danube corridor's share of cargo handled at Ukrainian ports jumping from 10 percent to 74 percent in August 2026.
The war has expanded to include food-related facilities and ships carrying grain and other food products. Russia has concentrated its strikes on Ukraine's grain and oilseed infrastructure, while Ukraine has redirected its drones towards Russian grain and vegetable oil export facilities. The economic impact is significant, with Ukraine's agriculture minister estimating a potential loss of $8bn between June 2026 and June 2027 if ports remain closed.
Recent attacks have pushed wheat futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to their highest levels since 2023, with prices rising by about 20 percent in the first nine months of this year. The combined production of the world's seven largest wheat-exporting countries is likely to fall by 11 percent in the 2026-27 season, exacerbating the threat to global food security. The disruption of food supplies threatens to add another source of inflation, particularly in Arab and African countries that depend heavily on imported grain.