Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine has transformed the Black Sea into the world’s most perilous shipping route, surpassing even the volatile Strait of Hormuz. Since the start of 2026, at least 40 sailors have lost their lives in the Black Sea, compared to 24 in the Strait of Hormuz, where tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran have also disrupted maritime traffic.
Over 570 ships have been attacked in the Black Sea this year, according to maritime security firm Ambrey and the International Maritime Organization. Both Russia and Ukraine are targeting each other’s vessels to undermine export revenues. War-risk insurance for ships in the Black Sea now costs up to 15% of a ship’s hull value, nearly double the rate in the Persian Gulf. Nearly the entire Black Sea is classified as a high war-risk zone, except for the territorial waters of Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey.
As a result, shipping companies are increasingly avoiding the Black Sea or using older, cheaper-to-insure vessels. Crews are often recruited from Syria, Egypt, and Azerbaijan, with Syrian sailors earning around $800 a month and promised hazard pay and compensation for their families in case of death. Ukrainian forces have struck over 300 Russian vessels in recent months, while Russia has escalated attacks on ships entering Ukrainian ports, accounting for about 90% of strikes on commercial vessels in the past 45 days.
The conflict is disrupting global fuel and food supplies. Russian wheat exports fell 52% in September compared to the previous year, and Ukraine is exporting only half its projected agricultural volume. Russian diesel exports dropped by 467,000 barrels a day in September. The global impact of the Black Sea war is compounded by the conflict in the Persian Gulf, making it difficult to isolate the effects on fuel and grain prices.