Black Sea Conflict Shifts Egypt's Corn Imports Towards South America

The ongoing conflict in the Black Sea has significantly impacted Ukraine's ability to export grain, including corn. According to Egyptian importers, Ukrainian corn has all but disappeared from Egypt's market since May, with no shipments taken during its usual peak season of October-March.

However, instead of turning to US corn as a replacement, Egyptian importers have been filling the gap with Brazilian and Argentine corn. In fact, 100% of corn arrivals in Egypt during the first half of September were from Brazil, according to Mediterranean Star Trading GM Hesham Soliman's tracking data.

Soliman believes that Ukrainian corn will not be able to regain its market share until the conflict is resolved. He notes that the current pricing structure and logistics make US corn uncompetitive in the Egyptian market, with freight rates and currency risk adding to the challenges.

Feed mills in Egypt are also leaning towards Brazilian and Argentine corn due to their superior quality. For US origin to break into the market, Soliman estimates that exporters must come in at a price of EGP 500-600 per tonne below Brazilian and Argentine prices.