Black Sea Conflict Sparks Global Wheat Price Surge

The ongoing conflict in the Black Sea has disrupted grain exports from Russia and Ukraine, leading to a surge in global wheat prices. According to the US Department of Agriculture's latest report, Russian wheat exports are forecasted to decline by 1.5 million tonnes to 46 million tonnes for the 2026/27 season due to disruptions in Black Sea shipping.

The USDA also cut Ukraine's wheat export forecast by 1 million tonnes to 13.5 million tonnes, citing disruption to its deep seaports. In contrast, Russia is discounting its wheat prices despite being the world's cheapest large wheat seller, as it faces difficulties in loading cargo due to the port campaign.

As a result, every major exporter apart from Russia has increased their wheat export quotes. The EU's wheat import demand is expected to rise, with quotes jumping $25 to $262 per tonne. US quotes rose $26 to $321 per tonne, while Canadian and Australian prices also increased.