Black Sea Disruptions Threaten Egypt's Wheat Supplies

Egypt is facing growing risks to its wheat supplies due to disruptions in the Black Sea region. The country, one of the world's largest grain importers, relies heavily on Ukraine and Russia for its wheat imports. In the first half of 2026, these two countries accounted for over 82% of Egypt's wheat imports.

Mutual attacks on ports and grain infrastructure across the Black Sea have disrupted shipments from both countries. Ukrainian exporters are increasingly relying on alternative routes via the Danube, but congestion and limited capacity prevent these routes from fully compensating for disruptions at deep-water Black Sea ports.

The supply problems are already increasing wheat costs for Egypt, with Russian 12.5% protein wheat offered at around $298.5/t as of August 26, up from $282.6/t in early July.