The Black Sea grain trade remains severely disrupted, with vessels waiting at anchor and limited shipments from Ukraine and Russia. Romanian and Bulgarian exports are holding steady, but Ukraine's Danube river ports cannot match the capacity of its major Black Sea ports. Farmers are delaying corn harvests due to low prices and storage concerns.
Russia has shifted its wheat exports to Baltic ports like Vysotsk, Ust-Luga, and St Petersburg, with September volumes reaching a record 1 million tonnes. However, exports remain half of previous years' levels due to capacity constraints and rail wagon shortages. Overland exports are helping, but seaborne trade is still far below normal.
Importers are adjusting to the loss of Russian and Ukrainian supply, with Egypt waiting for lower prices and Indonesia buying more Argentine wheat. The EU and Argentina are picking up displaced demand, while the US is close to import parity. Southern Hemisphere supply from Australia and Argentina is adding competition.
Freight costs are rising, with Panamax and Supramax time charter earnings averaging near $18,500/day and $18,900/day, respectively. Fuel prices remain high due to tight supply and geopolitical tensions. Vessel supply is keeping a lid on hire rates, but congestion and logistics issues persist.
In row crops, US corn sales lag behind last year, while Argentine corn sales are at a record. US soybean exports are estimated above 50 million tonnes for 2026-27, with ending stocks significantly below USDA forecasts. South American weather, especially rainfall in Mato Grosso, and the pace of US non-China soybean sales are key watchpoints.