Black Sea Truce Needed to Prevent Global Food Crisis
A summer of escalating violence in the Black Sea has severely impacted Ukraine's economy and exacerbated global food security. The region is now 'shipping's deadliest theatre', according to Lloyds List, with more dangers than even the Strait of Hormuz.
Ukraine and Russia together account for about 30% of the world's wheat exports and 12% of corn exports, all shipped through the Black Sea at low cost by bulk carrier. However, in August, aerial warfare reduced grain and agricultural exports from both countries by two-thirds.
This has put several African nations at risk of famine, with world cereal prices already pushed up by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz potentially rising even higher. The need for a truce in the Black Sea is now urgent.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has offered a ceasefire, but Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far rejected it. The Russians have been hit heavily by Ukrainian missiles in the Sea of Azov and around the port of Novorossiysk, yet Putin believes Russia can endure this pain competition better than Ukraine.
Russia's strategy is to weaken Ukraine this fall and winter by decimating its ports and energy infrastructure. Europe's support for Ukraine is also under threat, with far-right parties in countries like France and Poland questioning the need to fund Ukraine's war effort.