Black Sea wheat disruptions threaten global high-protein supply

Disruptions in wheat exports from the Black Sea region are not only reducing trade volumes but also altering the quality mix of available grain. Analysts highlight concerns that alternative wheat sources may not fully compensate for the high-protein wheat traditionally supplied from the region.

The main issue is the limited access to Russian wheat, which typically contains around 12.5% protein. While exporters like Australia and Argentina may provide sufficient replacement tonnage, their wheat often has a lower protein content, around 11.5%, which could lead to a shortage of suitable milling wheat.

The European Union also faces challenges in replacing Black Sea supplies. EU wheat production for the 2026/27 marketing year is forecasted at 133.2 million tons, down from 143.4 million tons the previous year. France produces high-quality wheat but in smaller quantities, while Romania and Bulgaria have a higher share of lower-quality wheat.

In Ukraine, around 60% of the wheat crop is expected to be milling quality, with protein levels typically around 11.5%. However, logistics constraints and the redirection of transport capacity toward more profitable oilseeds are further complicating the situation.

High fertilizer prices pose another risk for future seasons. Producing high-protein wheat requires more nitrogen, and weak milling premiums combined with expensive fertilizers could lead farmers to reduce input use, potentially lowering crop quality in the coming years.