Black Sea Wheat Exports Cut in Half as Corn Yields Face Uncertainty
Grains markets were mixed this week, with Chicago grains slipping while Euronext ended unchanged. A key concern is France's corn production, which is set to hit a 50-year low of 8.1 million tonnes, down 41.8% year on year and 40.7% versus the five-year average. This would be the lowest production since 1970.
The corn harvesting season in the Northern Hemisphere is underway, and while the main focus is European corn, there's still a risk of a downside surprise in US yields. Based on current data, Nixal Commodities continues to see a USD 5.00-5.55/bushel range as justified for Chicago corn.
Wheat exports out of the Black Sea are also under scrutiny, with combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports projected at their lowest level since 2010/11. The disruption has resulted in a 50% cut to wheat exports, from 16.2 million tonnes last year to around 8 million tonnes for the July-September period.